Indian footwear industry projected to hit $90 Billion by 2030

The Indian footwear industry has the potential to more than triple its market size to $90 billion by 2030, provided the government implements strategic measures such as a ban on finished shoe imports, fiscal incentives, and the establishment of more design centres, according to a report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) released Sunday. The think tank noted that the market, currently valued at $26 billion, will be defined by two major transitions: a surge in non-leather footwear demand—rising from 25% to 75% market share—and a shift in leather shoe production from small-scale cottage industries to large-scale corporations.

The report suggests eight key actions for the sector, noting that current shoe-making technology remains primitive compared to industries like electronics. It urged India to support local production by domestic firms and MNCs while halting the import of finished shoes from China and Vietnam. To address the 30-40% increase in production costs caused by importing critical materials, GTRI recommended introducing a Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme for inputs like outsole moulds, glue, and TPU films.

Prepared by GTRI Co-Founder Ajay Srivastava, the document further advises the government to exempt leather shoes from Quality Control Order (QCO) applications, as they already dominate India's exports to quality-conscious markets like the EU and USA. Instead, it suggests applying QCOs to the non-leather sector, which accounts for 77% of footwear imports. To protect domestic manufacturers, the report proposes a 35% customs duty on footwear priced below $3 per pair and a minimum import price of $5. Finally, it emphasized the importance of attracting Taiwanese contract manufacturers, who currently dominate global production for major brands like Nike and Adidas, to set up operations within the country.

The GTRI report outlines a transition from a traditional, craft-based leather industry to a high-tech, corporate-led manufacturing hub. By identifying the critical lack of local component manufacturing (soles, glues, and films) as a 40% cost penalty, the analysis shifts the focus from simple assembly to deep-tier industrialization. The proposed combination of aggressive protectionism (import duties/bans) and supply-side incentives (PLI) suggests that India's $90 billion goal depends entirely on its ability to replicate the Taiwanese "mega-factory" model for the non-leather sneaker market.