Footwear bosses' cautious outlook amid geopol uncertainty

Confidence within the global footwear sector has softened slightly, reflecting broader geopolitical tensions and persistent cost pressures, according to the latest industry data. The recently published 14th edition of the World Footwear Business Conditions Survey reveals that whilst senior executives remain generally positive, enthusiasm has waned compared to late last year. The study indicates that the global footwear industry remains broadly optimistic, although expectations are more measured than in the previous semester and increasingly shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, cost pressures, and regional disparities.

The survey of 108 footwear executives across all major regions, conducted in April 2026 by World Footwear by Portuguese Shoes, found that 61 per cent of respondents expect their company’s business situation over the next six months to be strong or very strong. This represents a decline from the 71 per cent recorded in the previous survey taken between October and November 2025.

A clear division in sentiment has emerged between different segments of the supply chain. Footwear manufacturers are notably less optimistic than other businesses in the sector, yielding a +17 percentage points positive balance between favourable and unfavourable opinions. In contrast, footwear trade and distribution businesses maintain a much more robust outlook, recording a +63 percentage points positive balance.

Geographically, respondents in Europe are substantially less optimistic than those on other continents, though positive opinions prevail across all regions. This caution aligns with broader macroeconomic adjustments. In mid-April, the International Monetary Fund downgraded its forecast for global growth to 3.1 per cent in 2026 from an earlier 3.3 per cent projection in January. This revision reflects the impact of the U.S.-Iran conflict on energy prices, trade routes, and inflationary pressures, marking a deceleration from the 3.4 per cent expansion achieved in 2025. Despite these headwinds, footwear trade data for 2025 showed import growth in most major markets, particularly in Europe, though the United States and China recorded declines.

Operational cost pressures remain the primary concern for industry leaders. The cost of merchandise and raw materials was cited as a major pressure by 41 per cent of respondents, closely followed by domestic market competition at 40 per cent. Other leading challenges identified by executives include insufficient demand in their home market at 29 per cent, insufficient demand in international markets at 22 per cent, and taxation at 19 per cent. However, the report notes that whilst insufficient domestic demand remains relevant, it continues to lose prominence, suggesting a degree of improvement in underlying market conditions.

The U.S.-Iran conflict is widely perceived as a material business risk, with nearly 45 per cent of survey respondents considering a significant negative impact likely or very likely. Executives identified specific operational channels through which this geopolitical friction could harm their operations. Increased transportation and logistics costs were cited by 30.6 per cent of respondents, followed by higher raw material and other input costs at 27.8 per cent, and elevated energy costs at 18.5 per cent.